The Trend is an estimate, a projection, of how a Product-Value or Stakeholder-Value will become in the future.

You can use two kinds of Trends,
Internal, is an estimate of how well our Product will perform in time.
Market, is an estimate of how well the whole market including Stakeholders expectations and competing products will perform in time.

Alternative Names

Concept Number: *155
English Master: Trend
Synonyms, Variations & Acronyms: Trend-Level


The purpose of Trend is to give us a better comparison (Benchmark) for the degree of improvement or change we are Planning or achieving, than we would get by using the more static Benchmark “Past.” Trend makes us plan to cope with the future, not just the Past. It makes Systems-Engineers think about the competition.



Benchmark, Parameter


Stakeholders: End-User, Support
Scale: average time in minutes, to learn how to program contact names and telephone numbers into the memory of the phone.
Meter: time 5 people who have not had a mobile telephone Before, as well as 5 people who has, use the average.
Record [SIMO3, Japan, March Last Year, TTM-12 months] 4 min. <-
Past [Marketing, VX2 version1.23, Europe, Jan. Last Year, TTM-17 months] 55 min.
Trend [Market, Europe, March Next Year] 6 min.
Tolerable [Marketing, CS2, Europe, June Next Year] 35 min.
Goal [End-User, Support, CS2, Europe, April Next Year] 6 min.


Trend Examples:
Trend [Internal, CS1, Europe, 2020] 99
This Internal Trend is giving us a projection on how our current Product, CS1, will perform in Europe, 2020. This is especially interesting if the Product Quality or Stakeholder Value is getting worse over time. Let's say we have a Product on the market, and it is getting more and more users, the load is increasing, and with that the performance is decreasing, or reliability is decreasing. We can use Trend Internal to communicate this and relate it to our new project.

Trend [Market, Africa, 2020] 5 min.
The Market Trend is an estimation or projection to where the Market is heading. Let us assume we are
developing a Product to be delivered in Africa in 2020.
We have this information:
Past [Africa, Last Year] 25 min.
Trend [Market, Africa, 2020] 5 min.
Goal [Africa, 2020] 10 min.
Here we can see that we are not only competing with the Past levels, but also, we have to estimate the Market Trends, to be able to deliver a competitive Product.

Trend [Market, Competing Product X, 2020] 2 min.
Not only do we have to beat the competitors current products, but the products they will introduce around the same time as when we introduce our products.

“The other beauty (“truths I”ve learned to challenge”) goes something like this: A team comes in with a proposal to leapfrog the current position of its leading competitor. The implicit Assumption is the competition will be sleeping. Doesn”t usually happen that way..... It was tough, but we tried like hell to look at every new Product plan in the Context of what the smartest competitor could do to trump us. Never underestimate the other guy.”
Jack Welch, former CEO General Electric [WELCH01, page 391]






This Concept entered by Kai Gilb.

Created by system. Last Modification: Thursday 11 of July, 2019 21:02:52 CEST by Admin (Kai).